Making Decisions With Incomplete Data

Making Decisions With Incomplete Data

Hey Everyone,

Hope you're having a great week. Here are a few things I've been reading, writing and pondering lately. Enjoy!

The Information writes articles about the technology industry that you won’t find anywhere else (like how Evan Spiegel fumbled Snap’s redesign and how Netflix is shaking up Hollywood with its unique org structure).

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1. The Sunk Cost Fallacy in Content Marketing

Some content is an investment, some content was an investment. Here’s how to say goodbye.

When companies invest a lot of time and money in content marketing, it’s really hard to say goodbye to hundreds or thousands of posts—even when it’s obvious that doing so is beneficial. The effect is compounded by the risk-averse nature of the modern workplace. Can you imagine telling your boss that the company’s investment in content is hurting the site? And what if you were the one that fought for the budget, hired the agency, or even wrote the posts? How many of us have the humility to eat the cost of those decisions and move forward?


2. How to Decide with Incomplete Data

I thought this post was really useful considering all of us are making decisions without complete data nearly every day.

You need to be right enough with your decision, but you don’t need to be perfect. If your decision made the company $5.2m or $4.8m net profit (instead of the +$5m you estimated), chances are that the company would still look at the decision as being a success. However, if your decision cost the company $10m in profits (instead of the +$5m you estimated), then your answer was neither directionally right, nor the right order of magnitude—and your decision would be a failure.

3. The Katmai Bear Cam Is Pretty Much the Best Thing on the Internet


4. Tweet of the Week

Have a great weekend!


PS - I’m looking to partner with a few great businesses to sponsor this newsletter. It reaches a bunch of smart folks from places like Google, Apple, Spotify, New York Times, Marriott and Harvard. Shoot me an email if you're interested in working together.

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